Unione Italiana Vini President Lamberto Frescobaldi calls for urgent government action as price-sensitive exports like Prosecco, Pinot Grigio, and key Tuscan reds face the heaviest impact.
“With a 15% tariff in place, the glass will be half-empty for at least 80% of Italian wines. The projected impact on our industry is a €317 million loss over the next 12 months. For our U.S. partners, the estimated missed earnings could reach nearly $1.7 billion. If the current weakness of the U.S. dollar persists, the damage could climb to €460 million. We call on the Italian government and the EU to urgently consider appropriate measures to safeguard a sector that has grown significantly thanks to U.S. demand,” said Lamberto Frescobaldi, President of UIV, following the agreement between the European Commission and the Trump administration to implement a 15% duty on Italian wine exports, effective August 1.
From Winery to Shelf: The Anatomy of a Price Hike
Frescobaldi added: “The meeting today in Scotland between Presidents Trump and von der Leyen has at least dispelled one of the uncertainties that had been weighing on the markets. Now, it’s crucial that the industry shares the burden along the supply chain to avoid fully passing the cost to the consumer. According to our analysis, earlier this year, a €5 bottle of Italian wine would reach U.S. shelves at $11.50. With the new tariff and the weaker dollar, that same bottle could now retail for around $15. This means the markup from winery to shelf jumps from 123% to 186%.”
UIV’s Observatory notes that the cost inflation is even more severe in restaurants, where the same €5 bottle could end up on the table for nearly $60, assuming standard restaurant markups.
A Market Uniquely Exposed: Why Italy Stands to Suffer Most
Paolo Castelletti, UIV’s Secretary General, commented: “It’s hard to consider this agreement a success. Yes, 15% is better than the originally feared 30%, but it is still dramatically higher than the virtually zero tariffs in place before. Compared to other European wine-producing nations, Italy stands to suffer more. Not only is Italy more exposed to the U.S. market – accounting for 24% of total wine exports versus 20% for France and 11% for Spain – but our strength lies in the price-to-quality ratio. Around 80% of Italian wines fall within the ‘popular’ range, with an ex-cellar price of €4.2 per liter. Only 2% of our exports are in the super-premium segment.”
In the ‘Red Zone’: Quantifying the Risk to Key Appellations
According to UIV data, without intervention to reduce margins across the supply chain – a strategy that would still result in losses – Italian wine exports could fall back to 2019 levels by the end of 2026. Currently, 76% of the 482 million bottles exported to the U.S. last year – equivalent to 366 million bottles – are in the “red zone,” as the United States accounts for more than 20% of total exports of these wines.
Some of the most exposed appellations include: Moscato d’Asti (60%), Pinot Grigio (48%), Chianti Classico (46%), Tuscany DOC reds (35%), Piedmont DOC reds (31%), Brunello di Montalcino (31%), Prosecco (27%) and Lambrusco. In total, 364 million bottles – worth over €1.3 billion – are at risk, representing 70% of all Italian wine exports to the United States.
Unione italiana Vini is awaiting the final text before making a full assessment of the agreement.
UIV – Unione italiana Vini
UIV – Unione italiana Vini is the most influential association representing Italian wine companies: more than 800 members, accounting for more than 50% of the total turnover of wine in Italy and more than 85% of the export turnover of Italian wine.